MediaBay Inc. update

MBAY, MediaBay Inc., closed at $1.74, up .23 or a little over 15% from yesterdays close. I purchased 2000 shares of MBAY at $1.67 today. I placed a stop at $1.40. I believe the stock will jump up on speculation over positive traffic reports for www.soundsgood.com from Alexa. I purchased MBAY purely on speculation. I would not advise risk adverse investors to purchase shares in MBAY. In the short term 2-3 weeks, I believe MBAY will trade in the $2-$3 range and there is a possibility that shares of MBAY may more than double. Long term I expect MBAY to drop. I see my downside risk at around .30 and my potential upside at $1.67 if the stock doubles.

Watching Lucent Technologies Inc.

Scratch off my order to purchase 3000 shares today of LU, Lucent Technologies Inc. at $2.79. If the market reverses in the next two weeks, LU has a good chance to drop to my target buy price of $2.55-$2.65.

RawGreed speculative trade

I just purchased 2000 shares of MBAY, MediaBay Inc. at $1.67. The company operates as a digital media and publishing company, specializing in spoken audio entertainment in the United States. It operates through three segments: Audio Book Club, Radio Spirits, and MediaBay.com. MediaBay is a company similar to ADBL, Audible, Inc. . MediaBay owns www.soundsgood.com. According to Alexa, www.soundsgood.com has surpassed www.audible.com in traffic, www.soundsgood.com has also entered Alexa’s top 10 list of changes in traffic for websites in the past week.

MBAY is a purely speculative purchase. I normally don’t purchase stocks like this, but I believe once news of the traffic increase comes out I see MBAY getting to the $2-$3 range in the next 2-3 weeks. This is one stock that could double quite quickly. I would place a stop loss at $1.40.

RawGreed morning direction

This morning I expect to see TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., and UMC, United Microelectronics Corp., jump up a bit before settling back. I expect to see LU, Lucent Technologies Inc., down. I may decide to purchase additional shares of LU in place of UMC.

Good morning, Lets get started

I’m up a bit early today looking at stocks and requests. E-mail me your requests and if I know anything about the stocks I will report back. This morning I am watching BIDU, Baidu.com, Inc., I have reduced my short price to $84 from $86. If the stock happens to rise to $84 I will short 200 shares of the company. I see a greater chance of BIDU dropping than rising in the current market. GOOG, Google Inc. and YHOO, Yahoo! Inc., two major powerhouses in the search market have been downgraded, I expect BIDU to drop in suit. You can never tell though with a stock as full of greed as BIDU. I see YHOO dropping and stabilizing at $36-$38. I may short the stock if it touches above $41 in the remainder of the week. I was looking at NVDA, NVIDIA Corporation, early this morning. I see a possible drop to $30-$31 in the next 1-3 months, before a rise to above $40 in mid-late 2006 on the heels of the Sony Playstation 3. I wouldn’t invest in NVDA at current prices. I mentioned earlier that I would feel more comfortable purchasing NVDA at low $20’s which I don’t see happening in the near future.

RawGreed direction

I should have taken notice sooner that the market appears to be overbought. When I covered my BIDU position, I should have sold my other positions to exit the market. My portfolio is down about 4% over the last 3 days of trading. Live and learn. If UMC drops under $2.95 this week, I will add 3000 shares to my position.

RawGreed Requests, Elan Corporation, plc

Paul S. writes,

ELN?

I’ve been watching ELN, Elan Corporation, plc, since April 2005, when the stock dropped under $4. Elan is a tricky situation to invest in. Elan is a company highly dependant on a single drug, Tysabri, regaining FDA approval. I read this article, “Elan Shares Jump As Tysabri to Get Review” that describes what happened to the company and Tysabri.

Here’s a quote from the article:

Its shares stood at a year-high 22.40 euros ($26.20) before Tysabri’s withdrew, and fell to a year low of 2.30 euros ($2.70) when prospects for the drug’s return appeared dim.

Prior to Elan’s problems with Tysabri, I was very bullish on the company. There are very few medications to treat multiple sclerosis that work. Tysabri was a breakthrough medication that seemed to hold great potential as a treatment for MS patients. The FDA will announce the results of its priority review for Tysabri in 6 months. If the FDA allows Tysabri to return to the market you can expect ELN to more than double its current price. For now, I believe the rise in price is based purely on speculation over the FDA’s review.

Good Morning, Lets get started

I’m getting indications that it would be a good time to completely exit the market since it appears to be overbought. Greedy short sellers have come out in force. I may decide to lock in gains with TSM and NT and buy them on a pullback. If that happens I will also load up on UMC since I expect the stock to go down a bit more if the market really reverses. If the remainder of the week is down, I expect we will go through a downturn that will last till mid December. This week should provide a good deal of direction for the first half of December. I am expecting the Dow to cross 11000 and the Nasdaq to cross 2300 by the end of 2005.

Gold breaks $500, another price target and prediction comes true

While checking kitco.com I saw that gold broke $500 in an overnight trade. I saw this article titled “Gold Tops $500 In Overnight Trade” posted a few minutes ago by Morningstar.

Here is a quote from the article:

Spot gold and gold futures topped $500 an ounce in after-hours trading Monday, passing an important psychological barrier that hasn’t been eclipsed in almost 18 years.

As I predicted earlier, I believed gold passing $500 was not a question of if, but when gold would break $500. I went on to discuss my gold strategy if the metal were to break $500. It seems that if gold can maintain a price over $500 we will enter the third phase of a bull run as I mentioned earlier. The above Morningstar article mirrors one of my beliefs that gold breaking $500 is an important psychological milestone. I will be monitoring gold and expecting a huge surge up once speculative individual investors take notice and analysts jump on the bandwagon.

I wrote earlier:

It sounds like gold will break $500 soon. As I indicated in my earlier posts about gold, I believe gold is entering the third phase of a traditional bull run. I expect to see a frenzy of speculative buying when gold breaks $500. Once we see analysts who will tout gold’s never ending rise, we will have clearly entered the third phase. Heavy institutional buying, global fears over bird flu, terrorism, and positive consumer sentiment about gold as an alternative currency, will fuel an 80’s like speculative third phase bull run.

RawGreed Requests, UARM, Under Armour, Inc.

Leo L. writes,

I was wondering what are your thoughts on Under Armour’s IPO (Nasdaq:UARM)?

UARM, Under Armour Inc. sells athletic apparel and merchandise to a specific audience of young athletes. I prefer investing in companies that have a broader audience such as NKE, Nike Inc. and a more established brand name. Smaller companies such as Under Armour that cater to a specific audience, run a greater risk of success due to a momentary fashion trend. I have seen athletic wear companies come and go quickly. Instead of UARM, I would prefer to invest in OO, Oakley in the short term, 3-6 months. OO and UARM have a similar market cap, though Oakley is a far more established brand. Oakley is a sporting goods company that sells eyewear, clothing and accessories. In the long term I’m not bullish on any athletic apparel or sporting goods company. Earnings fluctuate wildly and rather quickly over customer trends.

RawGreed Requests, COH, Coach Inc.

Rupal A. writes

I was wondering if you had any ideas on Coach (COH)?

COH, Coach Inc., seems to be doing quite well. I like the fact that Coach has diversified over the years into non leather goods. For the past 14 quarters, same store sales have had double digit growth and the company is expecting the trend to continue. Coach generates over 30% of its annual profit during holiday sales. I expect that the company’s 2005 holiday sales will be strong. I also like the fact that Coach is expanding its presence in Japan through a joint venture. Japan has a near insatiable demand for luxury goods. If Coach can compete successfully in Japan with Louis Vuitton, Burberry and other luxury manufacturers of leather good and handbags, the company will have a bright future in the country. The risk to any luxury goods company is that they are highly vulnerable to changes in fashion and trends. If holiday sales are positive, in the short term, 6 months-1year, I see little risk in investing in COH. COH has experienced steady growth over the past 5 years. I believe the trend should continue in the short run. The price of COH may temporarily take a dip if negative economic indicators such as employment rates increase or retails sales figures for other luxury leather goods manufacturer’s drop. If a dip occurs, I would look at that as an opportunity to purchase COH.

Apple Computer Inc. hits $70

AAPL, Apple Computer Inc. has hit my $70 price target. On September 27th, 2005, I wrote an article titled Apple Computer Inc. Predictions about AAPL’s long term prospects and price targets. On September 27th, 2005, AAPL was trading at mid $53’s. A brief summary of what I wrote is below.

Point blank though, the company is becoming too reliant on the iPod. The bulls will drive the price of the stock up further due to greed.

My end of year price target for AAPL is $70
My predicted all time high for AAPL is $80
My predicted long term price for AAPL is $25-30 in 2-3 years

Taser International Inc.

I posted on Novemeber 25th, 2005 that I expect TASRE, Taser International Inc. to lose up to 30% of its $7.40 closing price. If TASRE does lose 30% of its November 25th closing price, that puts the stock at $5.18. I expect that TASRE might lose more than that on speculation behind the company’s corporate compliance and reporting policies. TASRE has been badly hurt by over 30 pending lawsuits, 5 of which have been dismissed. I don’t see smaller companies as potential competitors yet. I believe most law enforcement and potential customers of stun guns are waiting to see how Taser’s lawsuits work out. If the lawsuits do work out in Taser’s favor, I see customers turning to Taser for their stun gun needs. If this situation pans out, I expect Taser to hold a monopoly over all the major potential customers of stun guns. I don’t believe stun guns are a category of products that compete like normal products on price and performance. I believe the major determining factor, for volume purchasers of stun guns, is liability and dependability. If Taser’s lawsuits are dismissed, the company will receive a vote of confidence in both liability and dependability for their stun guns. A dismissal of the remaining lawsuits would be a competitive advantage none of the smaller would be competitors to Taser would have.

I see TASRE potentially dropping to mid $4’s driven by speculative greedy short sellers. The speculation and greed behind TASRE is fueling major price movement in the stock. If TASRE drops below $4 I will purchase 3000 shares of the company.

Good Morning, Today’s watchlist posted and RawGreed requests to come

Okay let’s get started. I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. I was busier than I expected, I will get to most of the requests I received over the weekend by tomorrow. Today I will be watching TASRE, Taser International Inc. and BIDU, Baidu.com, Inc. I’ve written about BIDU in several earlier posts. I expect BIDU to rise around $86 before taking a dip back down. This week, if BIDU trades above $90 I will short shares of the stock. My long term strategy and price targets for BIDU remain the same. I will post my prediction about TASRE’s short term performance and my intended plan of action later this morning.