Good Morning, Lets get started

After getting stuffed from Thanksgiving dinner, I’m ready to make some trades this morning. Today I’ll be watching BIDU, Baidu.com, Inc., and expecting the stock to rise early in the morning before investors take their profits later in the afternoon. I’m looking to short the stock at, or above, $86 today.AAPL, Apple Computer Inc., has a good chance to break $68 today. Another stock TASR, Taser International Inc., relisted as TASRE, has caught my eye. Taser, the Scottsdale, Arizona, manufacturer of stun guns, has failed to file its third quarter report on time and is subject to delisting on the Nasdaq. Taser has said it needs to restate earnings for the first and second quarters of 2005. The company will delay the release of its third quarter earnings until the first and second quarter earnings results are properly updated, until the third quarter results are available TASR will trade under the symbol TASRE. I believe TASRE presents an interesting short term investment opportunity. I would not take any immediate action in TASRE until the company restates its first and second quarter earnings. I expect that TASRE will drop, quite a bit, up to 30% of its November 23rd closing price of $7.40.

Apple Computer Inc., a look at my earlier predictions

On September 27th, 2005, I wrote an article titled Apple Computer Inc. Predictions about AAPL, Apple Computer Inc.’s long term price targets. A brief summary of what I wrote is below. On September 27th, 2005 AAPL was trading at mid $53’s.

Point blank though, the company is becoming too reliant on the iPod. The bulls will drive the price of the stock up further due to greed.

My end of year price target for AAPL is $70
My predicted all time high for AAPL is $80
My predicted long term price for AAPL is $25-30 in 2-3 years

The RawGreed request line is open, Happy Thanksgiving

I hope everyone enjoys the Thanksgiving holiday. We are all blessed to have so much. We should all remember to pray for everything we’re thankful for.

The RawGreed request line will be open for the next two days.

E-mail me your stock requests and I will get to them over the holiday.

Covering Baidu.com, Inc.

I shorted 200 shares of BIDU, Baidu.com, Inc. at $82.50 on September 19th, 2005. I covered 200 shares of BIDU at $79.00 today.

My profit was $688.32 or 4.36%.

It looks to me like BIDU might continue its aggressive rise if the market continues to rally. BIDU has been rising alongside of GOOG. I expect GOOG to experience a temporary pullback as investors lock in gains. I expect BIDU to drop consequently. Incase my prediction is incorrect I’ve covered my position in BIDU. If shares of BIDU jump up over $85, I will short additional shares of the company.

Baidu.com Inc. rising again

A stock like BIDU, Baidu.com, Inc. sometimes isn’t worth holding onto. BIDU is trading completely on the coattails of GOOG, Google Inc.’s amazing rise up. I see GOOG breaking $430 before the end of the year. I believe BIDU will break $84. I may pull out of BIDU today at $76 and short the stock back if it breaks $84. I still believe long term BIDU will drop dramatically. When the market realizes the size and speed of online advertising revenues for China aren’t materializing as fast as the company predicts the stock will rapidly fall. It will probably take another 2 or 3 quarters of lackluster earnings for the market to properly value BIDU. In the meantime BIDU has the potential to rise simply based on GOOG’s astonishing performance.

Getting in on UMC

On November 15th, 2005, I encouraged investors to get in on UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. at $2.90-$3.00. UMC is currently trading at $2.95. If the stock trades below $2.90 this week, I will add 3000 shares to my position.

*Disclaimer: I own 10,000 shares of UMC purchased at $3.20.

Gold closing in on $500

Check out this excerpt from a Marketwatch article I caught this morning.

Gold for December delivery touched $495.90 overnight before pulling back. The contract was last trading up $4.70 at $494.20.

“The target remains the magical $500 number, but we might see some retracement before that number is reached,” said Alan Plaugmann, sales trader at Saxo Bank.

The precious-metals rally is being driven by institutional and hedge-fund buying, although volume can be expected to thin in the run up to this week’s Thanksgiving holiday, he said.

It sounds like gold will break $500 soon. As I indicated in my earlier posts about gold, I believe gold is entering the third phase of a traditional bull run. I expect to see a frenzy of speculative buying when gold breaks $500. Once we see analysts who will tout gold’s never ending rise, we will have clearly entered the third phase. Heavy institutional buying, global fears over bird flu, terrorism, and positive consumer sentiment about gold as an alternative currency, will fuel an 80’s like speculative third phase bull run.

Gold is currently trading at $491

Some Great Calls

If you’ve followed along with my RawGreed recommendations, I’ve had some big winners in the last 3 months. I recommended ATYT, ATI Technologies Inc. at under $13.50 and I called a $16-$17 price target by the end of the year. It looks like ATYT will hit $17 soon. I recommended CAL, Continental Airlines Inc. at sub $9 and I called a $14-$15 price target within 6 months-1year. It looks like CAL will hit $16 soon. I recently recommended CBH, Commerce Bancorp Inc. at under $29 and called a $33 price target within 6 months-1 year. CBH is currently trading at low $33’s.

I believe I am entering and exiting my positions a little too quickly. It’s important not to react to emotional responses when selling and buying stocks. That’s exactly what greed feeds from.

RawGreed Growing

Now that RawGreed has been up and running for a few months, I would like to ask readers of the site to help me attract new visitors. It really keeps me motivated to see new people reading the site. If you can tell your friends or post on a forum about RawGreed, that would be great.

E-mail me your suggestions. I hope RawGreed has been a useful public service to many individual investors.

Gold nearing $500

Gold is on its well on its way to $500. Gold is currently trading at $484. I wrote an earlier article on September 24th, 2005 called Gold to $500? I discussed the effects of gold at $500 and what to watch out for once gold crosses the psychological benchmark. Here is a link to my complete gold watchlist with long term price targets and strategy. I continue to believe that the question of whether gold will break $500 is not if, but when. An important note to my strategy for gold is not to enact any short strategies until technical and institutional buying has slowed down and speculative buyers have come out in full force. I would wait until gold has taken a major jump over $500 for at least 6 months-1 year before shorting. If a bird flu pandemic materializes, I would advise to do the exact opposite and instead build a sizeable gold position.

RawGreed Requests, UMC or NT?

Sashi G. writes,

I was planning to buy UMC but it looks like appreciation potential is much less than NT in the comparative timeframe. Should I stick to ACLS or buy NT or UMC?

This is an interesting question. I posted my thoughts about ACLS below. If you are talking about long term potential, I believe NT, Nortel Networks Corp. has far greater potential than UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. If you are talking about short term gains, I expect UMC to surpass NT in percentage gain in the next 3-6 months.

My target sell price for UMC is: $3.60 within 3-6 months, $4.50 within 6 months-1 year.
My target sell price for NT is: $5 within 6-12 months, $7-8 within 1-2 years.

Both stocks are selling for about the same price at low $3’s. I am bullish on both UMC and NT.

*Disclaimer: I own 10,000 shares of UMC purchased at $3.20. I own 9000 shares of NT purchased at an average price of $2.58.

RawGreed Requests, ACLS

Sashi G. writes,

ACLS, I bought it at $5.80 but ER crushed it. What do you think?

ACLS, Axcelis Technologies Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing, and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips.

While I am generally bullish on semiconductor stocks, at the moment I’m not sure that investing in ACLS is a good idea. ACLS appears to be on a steady decline from lackluster earnings reports. The recent drop may be overdone, but I would wait on the sidelines to watch what happens before jumping in. I see more downside risk before the stock has a chance of reversing. Semiconductor foundries must make the most of existing equipment since their profit margins are being cut down. I believe that ACLS will have to wait until most semiconductor fabricators completely phase out current equipment before orders for new equipment will pick up. It looks to me that ACLS will benefit midway into a semiconductor industry recovery, when the budget of its customers gradually increases.

RawGreed Update, United Microelectronics Corp.

UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. closed at $3.03 today. The stock traded as low as $2.98. If UMC trades below $2.90 this week I will add 5000 shares to my position. I encourage investors to purchase UMC at any price under $3. The pullback I spoke of is definitely happening.

*Disclaimer: I purchased 10,000 shares of UMC at $3.20 on October 11th, 2005.

Bird Flu Biomedical Watchlist

Here are the biomedical, vaccine, and antiviral pharmaceutical stocks I am watching in my bird flu portfolio.

SVA, Sinovac Biotech Ltd.
NVAX, Novavax Inc.
BCRX, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.
GILD, Gilead Sciences Inc.

Here’s a great Forbes article with another list of biomedical bird flu stocks to watch.

Anti Bird Flu Portfolio

I encourage investors to add my gold watchlist to their own. I am in the process of constructing a bird flu portfolio. If a global bird flu pandemic strikes, the only stocks that I see as a near guarantee to go up are gold stocks. Stocks in biomedical companies will surely go up but picking the winners will be a little more difficult. I am watching a batch of possible vaccine and treatment companies. I don’t recommend buying into bird flu speculation. I would wait to exit my current positions in the beginning of a pandemic and buy gold stocks as the first batch of post bird flu economic statistics arrive.

Here’s my gold watchlist.

GG, Goldcorp Inc.
IAG, IAMGOLD Corp.
BGO, Bema Gold Corp.
NEM, Newmont Mining Corp.
ABX, Barrick Gold Corp.
PDG, Placer Dome Inc.
AUY, YAMANA GOLD INC

Gold is currently trading at $467.

Note: I have posted my prediction about gold rising above $500. If the catalyst for gold’s rise is bird flu, I wouldn’t follow a long term short strategy since the economic effect of a pandemic will likely have a long term effect on the price of gold. I have recommended a long term short strategy for gold if the price rises due to the market entering the third phase of a traditional bull run.

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