United Microelectronics Corp. Pullback

It looks like that pullback on UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. is happening. I encourage investors to get in on UMC at $2.90-$3. I may purchase additional shares of the company if the stock trades below $2.90.

RawGreed Requests, VRSN

Roberto writes,

My portfolio today: CHK,NVDA, VRSN,ADBE. Any comment or analysis?

VRSN, VeriSign, Inc., nicknamed the Internet security company, provides infrastructure solutions for enterprises to conduct secure transactions across the Internet. Verisign is the company whose logo you see prominently displayed on almost every major E-commerce site on the Internet. Verisign’s products and services are used by nearly every Internet user without them knowing it. I don’t see Verisign going away or replaced anytime soon. Verisign has branched out into wireless and VoIP which should give the company plenty of headroom for growth in the future.

RawGreed Requests, NVDA

Roberto writes,

My portfolio today: CHK,NVDA, VRSN,ADBE. Any comment or analysis?

All of the companies in your portfolio are strong recent performers. I covered ADBE, Adobe Systems Inc. in my blog earlier. I’ll address two of the companies in your portfolio, NVDA and VRSN. NVDA, NVIDIA Corp. is a manufacturer of GPU’s, graphic’s processing units for PC video cards, consoles and mobile devices. The company is the main competitor to ATYT, ATI Technologies Inc., a RawGreed recommended stock that I invested in earlier this year. I believe in the short run, 3-6 months, NVDA will continue to rise on strong sales of its 7800 line of GPU’s. Nvidia’s business is highly cyclical and when products start to build a glut with OEM’s, distributors and retailers, NVDA tends to drop. NVDA has dropped to under $10 in the last 2 years before rebounding to today’s current levels. NVDA will benefit tremendously from providing the graphics technology for Sony’s Playstation 3. This should drive revenue up to record levels for the company. Still, due to how quickly graphics technologies go in and out of favor with gamers, I wouldn’t invest in NVDA at today’s prices. I don’t see it happening, but I would feel more comfortable investing in the stock on a pullback to low 20’s in the next 3-6 months.

RawGreed Requests, CNVR

Kai writes,

What’s is your assessment of the Excalibur search technology by CNVR? Can this generate Google-like investor interest?

I doubt anything in the near term can generate Google-like investor interest. Google is the bull market’s darling and I doubt we’ll see another company with the same broad market reach of Google for quite sometime. Just mention Google’s name in the same breath as another public company and the said company’s stock should pop. CNVR, Convera Corp. appears to be headed in the right direction. The company has recently announced new government contracts, growing revenues and increasing margins. I would wait and see what the 3rd quarter earnings results, set to be announced at the market close of November 30th, will be before investing in the company. As you might be able to tell by reading, I prefer slow and steady growth, with a few consecutive quarters of consistent results, compared to what has happened, which is a sudden pop in the price of CNVR. The price of the stock has already jumped up nearly 300% this year. It’s also worthy to note that there are over 4 Million short shares out on CNVR. I believe CNVR will have to announce extremely positive results November 30th to continue its aggressive rise up.

RawGreed Requests, GTE

Zoran M. writes,

I was wondering your thoughts on Globetel Communications (AMEX:GTE)

GTE, GlobeTel Communications Corp. provides Internet Telephony using VoIP, which I am very bullish on. I expect to see some consolidation among companies providing VoIP solutions in the next 2-3 years. GTE was trading at .25 before a 1:15 split that took the stock to high 3’s on May 23′rd, 2005. I would have expected the split to give GTE some increased visibility and a jump up in price since the stock should appear on the screens of investors that avoid trading stocks with such low prices. Instead the stock has been on a steady decline since the May 23rd split. GTE has recently jumped but if the market takes a dip I believe GTE will follow along with it. I would also watch GTE carefully since the stock appears loaded with speculation and the company has requested a trading review with the American Stock Exchange with allegations of manipulation. I also find it odd that GTE releases news about various LOI’s, Letters Of Intent. An LOI is actually a very weak document since it has no legal binding power. It’s like formally shaking hands in the business world, saying sure we are interested in doing business. A company that announces every LOI should be approached with caution.

The RawGreed request line is open

The market was up today, as I had predicted yesterday. I expect next week to be mostly mixed with a heavy dose of profit taking. E-mail me your stock picks and I will report back with an analysis if I know anything about them. I don’t cover penny stocks, medical or biotech stocks, anything else is okay. Enjoy your weekend.

Watching Ford Motor Co.

F, Ford Motor Co. is embattled with rising energy costs and faced with sluggish sales for its SUV’s and trucks. Rising energy costs have forced Ford customers to cut back on purchasing new vehicles. I believe greedy short sellers have pushed the price of Ford down on speculation that the company is faced with several years of sluggish sales and mounting debt. In the short run, fluctuations in the price of gasoline will likely keep Ford automobile sales and the stock depressed for the next 6-12 months. I believe within 2-5 years demand will slowly ease as consumers shift to hybrid energy efficient vehicles. The cost of gasoline over this time should drop and sales should pick up for Ford’s SUV’s and trucks. In the meantime, if Ford accelerates energy efficient automobile development to catch up with Japanese automakers, the company’s sales for small and midsize vehicles should pickup going into 2007. I like the stock at under $7.

Purchasing more of United Microelectronics Corp.

Today I purchased an additional 5000 shares of UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. at $3.20. I decided to increase my position in UMC to 10,000 shares. I see Taiwan’s economy improving steadily into 2006. I encourage investors to purchase UMC at today’s prices or to wait for a pullback at under $3 if it happens.

Purchasing United Microelectronics Corp.

Today, I purchased 5000 shares of UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. at $3.20. UMC, like TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., is an outsourced Taiwanese semiconductor foundry. UMC is the world’s second largest outsourced manufacturer of chips. Shares of UMC have been down over political instability and a downturn in demand for semiconductors in recent years. I believe the semiconductor industry has seen a strong rebound in the last year, but shares of UMC have not followed in suit. It appears to me that both UMC and TSM are set to jump up in the next 6-12 months. Utilization at UMC is up and a new round of consumer electronics, including game consoles, low cost HDTV’s, and high definition DVD players, will be launched in 2006. These new electronics will replace the aging current cycle of game consoles, SDTV’s, EDTV’s, and standard definition DVD players. The new electronics cycle will drive strong demand at outsourced semiconductor foundries, like UMC, for the next 4-5 years.

Symbol: UMC, United Microelectronics Corp.

Intelligent Investor Strength: 7
Chart Strength: 7
Speculation and Greed Strength: 9

RawGreed Strength Rating: 8

Target Buy Price: $3.20
Target Sell price: $3.60 within 3-6 months, $4.50 in 6 months-1 year.

Notes: If UMC drops under $3 I will purchase an additional 5000 shares.

*Disclaimer: I own 4598 shares of TSM at an average purchase price of $9.02

Selling Commerce Bancorp Inc.

I purchased 1000 shares of CBH, Commerce Bancorp Inc. at $28.87 on October 6th, 2005. I sold 1000 shares of CBH at $32.00 on November 10th, 2005.

My profit was $3128.66 or 10.84%

My target sell price was matched much faster than I expected. I posted this analysis on October 6th, 2005. For investors still holding onto CBH, I expect to see the stock break $33 within 3-6 months and $36 within 6 months-1 year.

Symbol: CBH, Commerce Bancorp Inc.
Intelligent Investor Strength: 7
Chart Strength: 8
Speculation and Greed Strength: 8

RawGreed Strength Rating: 7.75

Target Buy Price: under $29
Target Sell price: $32 within 3 - 6months, $35 within 6 months - 1 year.

RawGreed Market Recap and Forecast

The market ended up today on lower oil prices.

Today:

DJ Indu 10,640.66 94.45
Nasdaq Comp 2,196.68 20.87
S&P 500 1,230.97 10.32

Today:

Tomorrow’s forecast:

5 Day forecast:

I expect to see oil down and gold up. I am looking for continued gains in Taiwan semiconductor stocks. TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. has recently rallied and I expect to see the stock break $9 within 1-3 months.

RawGreed Requests, NWD

Casey L. writes,

What are your thoughts on NWD? I purchased today with the anticipation to break past the 52 week but I was wrong, it dropped a lot. Do you see potential?

It appears to me that there is some heavy speculative trading going on with NWD, New Dragon Asia Corp. When day traders get wind of the stock, it can move up quite fast. I believe in the short term, NWD may drop down a bit more since the recent rise in price was quite aggressive. Yesterday NWD announced strong 3rd quarter results and the price of the stock still dropped. This suggests that investors were overally optimistic about the company’s 3rd quarter earnings results.

RawGreed Requests, WFR

Francisco writes,

WFR? Is there any upside potential?

WFR, MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. is in a great industry. The company produces wafers for the semiconductor industry worldwide. WFR has risen a little too aggressively for my tastes. I would look at purchasing WFR on a pullback. The semiconductor industry should see a big rebound in 2006, but I expect at least one more pullback to occur. The next generation of low cost HDTV’s and a new DVD format will drive the next cycle of consumer electronics and demand to an all time high. There will be a period when the new technologies are being introduced in 2006 that will allow manufacturers to forecast adoption rates. I would wait until the smaller electronics companies from China and Taiwan start producing these electronics. This signals mass adoption since these smaller players don’t have the enormous budgets or the ability to assume risk like the larger electronics and computer firms. Once we start seeing demand growing from smaller companies for newly designed microprocessors, it signals a new demand cycle. These new chips have higher margins and will increase the profits of everyone in the industry. Wafers are a commodity like steel or wheat. Companies like WFR should benefit tremendously from the full utilization of semiconductor fabricators.

Bullish on Nortel Networks Corp.

NT, Nortel Networks Corp. is one of my top picks. I would use the recent pullback in NT as an opportunity to purchase shares of the company. NT has dropped on the heels of an upgrade from Hold to Buy, and a raised price target of $3.50 to $4.50 from TD. Here is my revised analysis of NT, posted on October 11th, 2005.

Symbol: NT, Nortel Networks Corporation

Intelligent Investor Strength: 9
Chart Strength: 5
Speculation and Greed Strength: 10

RawGreed Strength Rating: 8.5

Revised Target Buy Price: under $3.20
Target Sell price: $5 within 6-12 months, $7-8 within 1-2 years.

*Disclaimer: I own 9000 shares of NT purchased at an average price of $2.58.

RawGreed, send in your requests

I’ll take requests this morning. E-mail me your stock picks and I will report back with an analysis if I know anything about them. If I don’t post a response within 48 hours then I don’t know anything about the stocks you sent in.

← Previous Page — Next Page →