Two new stocks on my watchlist

I read a great Motley Fool article that gave me two ideas for stock picks. I’ve added FLWS, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. to my watchlist. 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. operates as a gift retailer in the United States. It provides various gifts products, including flowers, plants, gourmet foods, cookies, cakes, candies, wine, gift baskets, and other gifts to customers worldwide. The company is enjoying strong YTD sales growth and is expected to continue to grow sales in 2006. 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. is a farily stable gift giving business and provides a service that almost anyone can use. I don’t see revenue suddenly growing, but I don’t see revenue suddenly dropping either. I expect consumer spending and confidence to be strong in 2006. I don’t see much of a reason for FLWS to remain so low. I am looking at a chance to pick up shares of FLWS at under $6.50. I expect shares of FLWS to trade above $7 in 3-6-months and $7.50 in 6 months-1 year.

I’ve also added BBBB, Blackboard, Inc. to my watchlist. Blackboard, Inc. provides enterprise software applications and related services to the education industry. It offers a suite of products, including Blackboard Learning System, Blackboard Community System, and Blackboard Content System. Taken frmo the Motely Fool article:

“Blackboard has more than 3,000 licenses with 2,225 institutions, serving students from kindergarten through graduate school. The average licensee pays close to $29,000 a year, and customers are renewing at a rate north of 90%. The firm is making inroads internationally, with more than 15% of its sales on foreign soil and a commitment to translate its software into eight languages by the end of this year.” Moreover, the company just bought its largest competitor.

I like the fact that so many Educational institutions are BBBB’s customers. Schools are notriously slow to change and when they adopt something they will usually stick to it for a few years till a new need arises. BBBB is a bit boring and traded volume is low suggesting the stock doesn’t have much public awareness or speculation behind it. I may look at purchasing shares of BBBB if the stock drops below $28. It looks to me like investors are merely taking profits in a stable growing company.

Bema Gold Corporation Update

BGO, Bema Gold Corporation is acting a bit strange at the moment. All the stocks on my gold watchlist are currently up, while BGO is down. There doesn’t seem to be any negative news about BGO today. Gold is currently trading at $507. I expect BGO to rise along with all the other gold stocks on my watchlist.




[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]


Raw Greed Holiday Update

I hope everyone enjoys a happy and healthy holiday. We should remember to pray for our family, friends and those in need. My portfolio finished up yesterday. UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation and TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited are starting a rampage and I expect both stocks to do well going into 2006. Utilization at both UMC and TSM is nearing 100%, driven by strong demand for consumer electronics. In 2006, I expect the strongest demand for consumer electronics to come from HD-DVD, Blu-Ray, Playstation 3 and HDTV application technologies. UMC and TSM produce many of the microchips used in todays consumer electronics. Taiwan’s economy which is heavily supported by the electronics and semiconductor industries is steadily improving and the political climate following last years presidential election is smoothing out, easing investor fears. I expect to see UMC cross $3.40 and TSM to cross $10.30 in the next 1-3 weeks.

Gold is trading at low $500’s. Gold mining stocks are acting strangely and have failed to adjust themselves accordingly after gold’s drop from $540. I expected to see BGO, Bema Gold Corporation drop to below $2.50 as gold traded under $500 levels. I may sell my position in BGO if gold remains at low $500’s and the stock advances past $3 by the end of the year.



[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]

In retrospect, since I believe that gold mining stocks are being held up by speculation over gold resuming its bull run, I should have purchased shares of AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. instead of BGO. AUY is my top speculative gold mining stock pick.

Shares of MBAY, MediaBay Inc. have failed to advance. The company annouced news of an A&E Television Network and an MSN partnership and neither has created investor interest in the company. I will likley sell my shares in MBAY by the end of the year.

*Disclaimer: Please view my portolio page for a full disclosure of the stocks I own.

Watching Corporate High Yield Fund, Inc.

I’ve been watching COY, Corporate High Yield Fund, Inc. for over a year now and waiting for it to drop below $8. COY operates as a diversified, closed-end management investment company. COY currently pays a monthly dividend of $0.062, equivalent to 9.8% annually. The company was founded in 1993 and the stock price has rarely traded below $8. COY is currently trading less than $7.50. I expect the stock to drop a bit more before rebounding. I might pick up some shares of COY if the stock drops below $7.40. I expect the shares to rebound within 1-3 months and pass $8 again.

AUY and BGO update

With gold trading at low $500’s, AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. should be trading at $5.30’s and BGO, Bema Gold Corporation, at under $2.50. The fact that gold mining stocks haven’t corrected themsleves shows strong speculation by the market that the dip in gold prices will cause some buying interest by, India, China and Japanese investors. Looking at AUY, the stock has jumped up past gold trading at $540. AUY was my top speculative gold mining stock and it’s moved up tremendously. AUY closed at $5.99 yesterday. I purchased BGO instead of AUY since BGO acted more like the spot price of gold, adjusting itself accordingly. In the last two days, BGO hasn’t adjusted at all and has instead risen along with the speculation surrounding other gold mining stocks. With gold trading at low $500’s, BGO should be at $2.50 or less. BGO closed yesterday at $2.86.

*Disclaimer: I purchased 2000 shares of BGO at $2.80.

Arrived, Spot Gold update and predictions

I just arrived a few minutes ago and I am updating Raw Greed remotely. Gold is currently trading at $506.



[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

Gold traded as low as $499.50 early this morning. Currently the stocks on my gold watchlist haven’t been as negatively affected as I predicted. I believe this shows strong speculation by the market that gold will rebound. I purchased 2000 shares of BGO, Bema Gold Corporation at $2.80 on December 13th, 2005. Many gold metal investors will look at the pullback as a buying opportunity. If gold continues to trade at low $500’s tomorrow, I believe gold stocks should adjust to reflect the drop in price. With gold staying at low $500’s, I predicted BGO might drop below $2.50. If BGO trades below $2.50 this week I will add shares to my position.

Gold, TSM and UMC update

Gold is down this morning at $511. Investor sentiment seems to be that gold will resume its rise after this pullback. Gold stocks have not dropped to the level of gold trading at $511. TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation are both down at the moment. I would look at this as an opportunity to buy both stocks. Utilization at both semiconductor companies has reached nearly 100%. 2005 4th quarter revenues are set to break record levels. TSM is the worlds largest contract manufacturer of microchips, UMC is the worlds second largest. Both stocks appear to be undervalued. I see a bright outlook for both companies. You can click the predictions link in the main navigation menu to read my price targets and analysis.

Leaving for China

I’m done packing and will be leaving for China in the early afternoon. I expect to update Raw Greed remotely on Friday morning. If you have any specific stock requests E-mail me and I’ll take a look when I arrive.

New Feature

I realized what a hassle it is for blog readers to comb through archives to read an authors previous calls. I’ve spent the last two days to code a new feature for readers to track my current and past calls. I broke the predictions down by varying degrees of risk tolerance. You can click on the predictions link in the navigation menu above to view the new feature. Here is a sample of my top predictions since September 22nd, 2005.

Green list
Stock Symbol Name Posted Date Target Buy or Short Price Target Sell or Cover Price, Short Term Timeframe Target Sell or Cover Price, Long Term Timeframe Target Met ?
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited 9/26/05 Under $8 $10 in 3-6 months $11-$13 in 6-12 months Yes, ST target met
ATYT ATI Technologies, Inc. 9/26/05 Under $13.50 $15 in 3-6 months $15-18 in 1 year Yes, both targets met
AAPL Apple Computer, Inc. 9/27/05 $53, MKT price $70 by the end of 2005 $25-$30 in 2-3 years Yes, ST target met
CAL Continental Airlines 9/28/05 Under $9 $11-$12 within 3-6 months $14-$15 in 6 months-1 year Yes, both targets met
AMR American Airlines 9/28/05 Under $10 $13-$14 within 3-6 months $15-$16 in 6 months-1 year Yes, both targets met

Headed to China again

Tomorrow I will be headed to China for business and will return on January 10th, 2006. I will be updating Raw Greed remotely.

Purchasing Bema Gold Corporation

I wrote yesterday that, BGO, Bema Gold Corporation is another gold stock on my watchlist with strong volatility and heavy traded volume. Today I purchased 2000 shares of BGO at $2.80. If gold rises above $550 without any major pullbacks, I see BGO at $3.25-$3.50 in 3-6 months. If gold dips under $500 I expect to see BGO at sub $2.50. I will add shares to my position if that happens. Gold is currently trading at $522.

My long term sentiment on all gold stocks is to short them. I believe we are in the beginning of a third phase of a gold bull run fueled by speculative buying. If gold can maintain above $500 prices for another 3-6 months, I believe we will see the same type of mania found in the .com bull run.

Afternoon update

Gold closed down at $528. I had a chance to trade AUY and BGO in today’s morning action, but in both instances the prices changed so rapidly that I was priced out. I may take a smaller position in AUY, than I had planned, incase gold jumps up in tomorrow’s early morning trading. I submitted an order to purchase 4000 shares of LU, Lucent Technologies, Inc., at $2.75 good for today only. MBAY, MediaBay, Inc. has finally released news. The stock has seen some additional volume today and prices are up. If MediaBay can keep releasing positive news I expect the stock to get picked up by day traders and jump up at any minute. ADBL, Audible, Inc. a major competitor to MBAY has risen from high $11’s to currently low $14’s in the past month. I would not advise risk adverse investors to purchase shares in MBAY.

*Disclaimer: I own 8000 shares of LU purchased at an average price of $2.96, I own 2000 shares of MBAY purchased at $1.67.

Morning gold stock performance

AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. is jumping up this morning. AUY rose so quickly that I was priced out. I attempted to buy 5,000 shares of AUY at $5.45. AUY traded above $5.70 a few minutes ago. AUY is an example of what greed and strong speculation can do for an investor with nimble decision making ability. BGO, Bema Gold Corporation is another gold stock on my watchlist with strong volatility and heavy traded volume. BGO has jumped up, but not nearly as much as the other gold stocks on my watchlist. I have successfully traded BGO twice this year. I may take a position in BGO if gold shows a move up past $537 this morning.

Good Morning, lets get started

Today will be a tricky one. I was up last night doing more research on gold stocks. Gold was trading at $535 in the early morning and it looks like the metal shows no signs of a pullback yet. It looks like the place to be at the moment is gold and not the broader market. It’s interesting watching what I believe is the beginning of a gold mania and third phase of a bull run. If gold breaks new highs, I will purchase 5,000 shares of AUY, Yamana Gold Inc. today. I may consider day trading AUY for a rapid profit. A great way to monitor the performance of gold mining stocks is to track, HUI, the AMEX Gold BUGS, Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks, Index. Here is a good description, current makeup and history of the Gold BUGS Index. If you compare Friday’s performance of HUI and AUY you will see that they moved with similar patterns, except AUY moved downward more aggressively. AUY is more volatile than the stocks that make up the Amex Gold BUGS Index. I need a website that can provide good custom sized charts with side by side comparisons of two stocks. I can fit a maximum of 450 pixels in the post area of the blog. Does anyone know a website that has this functionality? Please E-mail me.

There’s a lot of action this morning on Raw Greed. I’ve got some speculative plays in the textile industry, UARM, Under Armour, Inc., DECK, Deckers Outdoor Corporation and TRLG, True Religion Apparel, Inc., that I am watching. All three of the mentioned stocks have been trading heavily on speculation. I will report back with an analysis.

Raw Greed weekend update

Yesterday the market closed with modest gains toward the end of the day’s trading. The gold stocks on my watchlist ended lower as the market rallied. My portfolio was slightly up from yesterdays close. TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. and UMC, United Microelectronics Corp. are both down. I may add shares to my UMC position if the stock trades below $3.20 next week. Gold has risen dramatically in the past week. The rise has been so unusually aggressive that we may see a pullback as some investors may take their profits off the table.

If the market rallies next week, this will pose an interesting situation for gold stocks. I expect gold stocks to trade inversely with the market. I decided to wait on purchasing shares in AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. AUY is a particularly volatile gold mining stock. Less than a week ago the stock was trading under $5 and rose as high as $5.71 on December 7th, 2005. AUY closed yesterday at $5.32. If we see a pullback in gold, I expect to see AUY at low $5’s or even under $5 again.

Next Page →


Fatal error: Call to undefined function: akst_share_form() in /home/rawgreed/public_html/wp-content/themes/vertigo-blue/vertigo-blue-3column/footer.php on line 44