Raw Greed midday update

BGO, Bema Gold Corporation has met my price target of $3.50 much faster than I anticipated. BGO traded as high as $3.69 today. If the dollar continues to fall and gold continues to rally, I expect to see BGO reach $3.75-$4 by the end of the month.

TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation are continuing to rise as I expected. As soon as numbers are released for the end of 2005, I expect things to get even better for both companies. Even the UMC chairman resigning, can’t stop nearly 100% utilization at UMC and a burgeoning global need for outsourced microchip fabrication. I believe UMC is still a bargain at today’s prices.

Watching W Holding Company, Inc.

WHI, W Holding Company, Inc. is jumping up this morning. The stock is trading at $8.75 at the moment. I sold WHI yesterday at $8.57. I hope I didn’t sell too early. I predicted that WHI would hit $11 in 1-3 months. Click the predictions link to read my original post about WHI.

Good Morning, lets get started

This morning I am looking to purchase 1000 shares of FLWS, 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. at under $6.40. Yesterday I submitted an order to purchase FLWS at $6.34. The stock closed at $6.47. I am also looking to get into JBLU, JetBlue Airways Corporation. There are some concerns over the aging and current maturity of the airline, but I believe any of these concerns are overstated. JetBlue isn’t saddled by the same labor regulations and union rules that hold back other airlines such as AMR, AMR Corporation and CAL, Continental Airlines, Inc. There is also strong speculation and investor interest behind airlines that should propel JBLU upward. I expect the upward trend to reverse in mid 2006, but in the short term, airlines seem to be a good investment. Considering how fast AMR and CAL have risen, I believe that JBLU has more upside potential left. AMR and CAL are both trading near their one year highs. I don’t see much more upside for AMR or CAL. I like JBLU at under $14.

Raw Greed portfolio update


Raw Greed Portfolio Value, 01/05/2006 - $150,331.89
Stock Symbol Company Name QTY Purchase Date Avg. Cost Last Target Sell Price
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited 4598 Various $9.02 $10.35 $11
NT Nortel Networks Corp. 9000 Various $2.58 $3.30 $5.00
LU Lucent Technologies, Inc. 8000 Various $2.96 $2.77 $4.50
UMC United Microelectronics Corporation 15000 11/11/2005 $3.17 $3.12 $4.50
BGO Bema Gold Corporation 2000 12/13/2005 $2.80 $3.20 $3.50

Notes:
I purchased 2000 shares of WHI at an average purchase price of $8.44 during October, 2005. I sold 2000 shares of WHI at $8.57 on January 5th, 2006.

My profit was $259.47 or 1.53%

I purchased an additional 5000 shares of UMC at $3.12 on January 5th, 2006.

Raw Greed Portfolio 1-5-06


Purchasing additional shares of United Microelectronics Corporation

I am working on executing my January 2006 strategy. I’ve submitted an order today to purchase an additional 5000 shares of UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation at $3.12. I will try and sell my position in WHI, W Holding Company, Inc. at $8.57 or higher today.

Attempting to purchase 1-800-Flowers.com Inc.

I’ve submitted an order to purchase 1000 shares of FLWS, 1-800-Flowers.com Inc., at $6.34. You can read my price targets for FLWS on the Raw Greed predictions page.

Raw Greed January direction

The market closed up today. The biggest percentage gainer in my portfolio was BGO, Bema Gold Corporation, which was up 5% today. Gold is currently trading at $533.



[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]



I expect the market to seesaw a bit before finding its direction in early 2006. I believe that holiday sales numbers will come in stronger than expected for computer hardware and consumer electronics companies.

This month what I’m planning to do is to sell off WHI, W Holding Company, Inc., NT, Nortel Networks Corporation and LU, Lucent Technologies, Inc. I will look to increase my position in TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation. Once 4th quarter revenue figures are announced for TSM and UMC, I will sell off a portion of my increased position and buy back WHI, NT and LU. I expect revenue figures for TSM and UMC to exceed analysts expectations. I will attempt to take a position in FLWS, 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. by purchasing 2000 shares of FLWS around $6.30. My strategy is to maximize the return from stocks on my watchlist that I feel will benefit most from a strong holiday gift giving season.

Raw Greed portfolio update


Raw Greed Portfolio Value, 01/04/2006 - $148,630.76
Stock Symbol Company Name QTY Purchase Date Avg. Cost Last Target Sell Price
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited 4598 Various $9.02 $10.18 $11
NT Nortel Networks Corp. 9000 Various $2.58 $3.24 $5.00
LU Lucent Technologies, Inc. 8000 Various $2.96 $2.72 $4.50
WHI W Holding Company, Inc. 2000 Various $8.44 $8.47 $13
UMC United Microelectronics Corporation 10000 11/11/2005 $3.20 $3.13 $4.50
BGO Bema Gold Corporation 2000 12/13/2005 $2.80 $3.26 $3.50

Notes:
I purchased 2000 shares of MBAY at $1.67 on November 30th, 2005. I sold 2000 shares of MBAY at $1.35 on December 29th, 2005. MBAY reached my stop set at $1.35.

My loss was $651.08 or 19.43%

I purchased 2000 shares of BGO at $2.80 on December 13th, 2005.

Raw Greed Portfolio 1-4-06


Looking forward to 2006

I hope everyone enjoyed the holiday season. 2005 closed on a sour note with my portfolio slightly down. I have high expectations for several of my positions in 2006. I expect TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation to announce blowout post holiday numbers in early 2006. Utilization has reached nearly 100% for both companies and post holiday sales results confirm my predictions that demand for consumer electronics and computer hardware would be strong in late 2005.

Here is a quote taken from a ZDNET article that also includes a chart with a breakdown of the top product categories for the 2005 holiday shopping season.

As far as revenues, apparel/clothing was the top product category in holiday shopping season 2005. However, it was computer hardware and peripherals that has experienced the highest growth.

Computer hardware and peripherals grew a staggering 126%, while consumer electronics grew 109% compared to 2004 holiday sales results. TSM and UMC provide many of the microchips used in computer hardware, peripherals and consumer electronics. TSM is the worlds largest outsourced manufacturer of microchips. UMC is the worlds second largest outsourced manufacturer of microchips. Most electronics companies can’t afford to operate their own semiconductor foundries, so instead they turn to TSM and UMC for their microchip needs. ATYT, ATI Technologies, Inc., for example, has turned to TSM to manufacture the graphics core for the X1800 line of graphics card’s and the graphics core for the Microsoft XBOX 360. I believe TSM and UMC are both wise long term investments going into 2006.

I see a rally in gold above $550 happening in the first half of 2006. Gold is currently trading at $518.80.



[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]


I expect to see AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. pass $7.50 and BGO, Bema Gold Corporation pass $3.50, if gold trades above $550.

I purchased 2000 shares of MBAY, MediaBay Inc. at $1.67 on November 30th, 2005. I sold 2000 shares of MBAY at $1.35 on December 29th, 2005. MBAY hit my stop set at $1.35.

My loss was $651.08 or 19.43%.

MBAY was a purely speculative play that didn’t work out. This is why I don’t normally invest in stocks like these. MediaBay Inc. failed in the short term to capitalize on positive news about the jump in traffic for www.soundsgood.com over it’s main competitor www.audible.com. The company also failed to properly time news about new partnerships to create the momentum needed for the stock to gain visibility among investors. My timeframe for MBAY to reach my target of over $2-$3, was 1-2 months. MBAY may rise in 2006, but I wont stay in the stock to find out.

At the moment I am updating from Hong Kong and I expect to return in mid to late January. When I return, I plan to add additional features to RawGreed.com, including a forum for discussions and an income tracker so readers know how much the site is making. The site income tracker should help increase my financial transparency on RawGreed.com.

*Disclaimer: Please view my portolio page for a full disclosure of the stocks I own.

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