Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and United Microelectronics Corporation update

Watching 2303.tw and 2303.tw on the Taiwan Stock Exchange can give you an indication of how NYSE ADR listed TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and UMC, United Microelectronics Corporation may perform. Taiwan is 12 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time in the USA. The market was closed on Friday, April 14th, 2006 for Easter in the USA but was open in Taiwan.

2303.tw closed at $68 last Friday, off .58% from its 52 week high of $68.40. TSM closed at $10.55 last Thursday, off 4.43% from its 52 week high of $11.04. 2330.tw closed at $21.10 last Friday, off 8.26% from its 52 week high of $23.00. UMC closed at $3.45 last Thursday, off 22.47% from its 52 week high of $4.45.

ADR’s listed here often do not move in immediate tandem with the stocks counterpart in the primary exchange they are listed. Market factors and economic conditions in the USA influence investors trading momentum and risk tolerance in investing in ADR’s. I believe the benefit from watching the ADR’s counterpart is to identify undervalued opportunities. While researching TSM and UMC, I found that both were heavily down in an improving semiconductor industry. The comparative performance of TSM and UMC to the stocks performance on the Taiwan Stock Exchange was quite large. Currently the difference in percentage performance is 7.64 times for TSM compared to 2330.tw and 2.72 times for UMC compared to 2303.tw. I expect that over time the ADR’s listed here will adjust to more evenly match the performance of the counterpart stock. Case in point, when TSM established its 52 week high of $11.04 on January 9th, 2006, 2330.tw established its 52 week high of $68.40 in the trading day 12 hours earlier. Watching the performance of 2330.tw and 2303.tw can give you an idea when TSM and UMC are setup to play catch up.

1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.

I’ve set a new price target for FLWS, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. at $8.50 in 3-6 months and $9 in 6 months-1 year. 1-800-FLOWERS.COM met my earlier price targets of $7 and $7.50 much quicker than I anticipated. I am excited by the company’s aquisition of Fannie May and the strategic direction the company is taking to further diversify into the gift business. The Fannie May aquisition should help boost earnings yield.

According to this Motley Fool article:

1-800-Flowers earns 3.2 cents in profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Fannie May earns about 16 cents.

1st Quarter 2006 earnings for 1-800-FLOWERS.COM are set to be announced on April 27th, 2006. Analysts on average are expecting a loss of .01 per share.

Growing Raw Greed

I would like to spend more time on Raw Greed and developing my stock picking ability. I believe accomplishing this involves two goals. The first goal is to monetize the blog. I have placed sponsor advertising on the blog and have researched statistics for comparison. I planned earlier in the year to add a site income feature in an effort to increase Raw Greed’s financial transparency. Before doing that, I would like to increase Raw Greed’s statistics to a meaningful level. A key measure in advertising is CTR or Click Through Rate. I’ve researched that a good CTR seems to be in the range of 8-12%. Raw Greed’s CTR is currently less than 2%.

The second goal is to increase reach. I have been on the receiving end of much appreciated support from the likes of David Jackson of Seeking Alpha, David A. Gaffen of The Wall Street Journal Online, and many Raw Greed readers. Other than increasing the number of inbound links and continuing to write content, I’m dumbfounded how to go growing Raw Greed less organically and more rapidly. I would eventually like to approach the critical mass of many of the bigger blog’s. If any readers have suggestions, I’m all ears. Perhaps all this involves is a little guerilla marketing. Please let your friends or other blog owners know that you visit Raw Greed.

I’ve checked the Google Page rank for Raw Greed and I noticed that the blog has a rank of 5. Thanks to everyone who visits for that accomplishment.


Raw Greed Page Rank

Purchasing Ford Motor Company

Today I purchased 1000 shares of F, Ford Motor Company at $7.20. Ford has dropped on weak sales, rising crude oil and gasoline prices. I believe speculative short sellers have pushed the price of F down. The company must shift its focus toward energy efficient hybrid vehicles as cost conscious consumers have moved away from purchasing gas guzzling SUV’s. Sales for hybrid vehicles have remained flat for the first Quarter of 2006, but I expect sales to pick up if oil and gasoline prices continue to rise. I believe in the mid term, hybrid vehicles will be the pre-cursor to a gasoline alternative fueled vehicle. Hybrid vehicles represent a substantial investment by nearly all automakers. In addition to Ford’s Escape Hybrid SUV, the company is set to rollout at least 7 more hybrid models by the end of the decade according to the WSJ*. My target sell price for F is $8.50 in 3-6 months and $9.50 in 6 months-1 year. Please click the predictions link at the top of the page to view my complete list of predictions.

*Note: You must have a subscription to view the WSJ Online

Yellow list
Stock Symbol Name Posted Date Target Buy or Short Price Target Sell or Cover Price, Short Term Timeframe Target Sell or Cover Price, Long Term Timeframe Target Met ?
F Ford Motor Company 4/12/06 Under $7.35 $8.50 in 3-6months, $9.50 in 6 months-1 year Only Short Term target N/A


Gold passes $600

Gold briefly passed $600 today before dropping back down. The metal is currently trading at $594. I believe gold is due for a round of profit taking since the ride to $600 from mid $500’s was quite smooth. Gold passing $600 is the next key psychological price since gold passed $500. I believe we are in the third phase of a bull run and we will see gold post even stronger gains as the metal peaks the interest of individual speculative investors who will purchase the metal as an alternative currency investment. AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. has dropped from its high of $11.64 set yesterday April, 10th, 2006 and is currently trading at $10.73. If AUY drops to under $10 this week I may purchase some shares in the company. My current buy price for the next 1-3 months remains unchanged at low $9’s.


[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

Gold approaching $600

The 24 hour spot gold price is within spitting distance of topping $600 and is currently trading at $599.20. I never anticipated that gold would rise to near $600 levels by the beginning of the 2nd Quarter of 2006. I was guessing that gold would pass the key psychological price sometime mid 2006. I am keeping an eye on AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. and I intend to buy if gold takes another dip from a round of profit taking.


[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

Watching Applied Materials, Inc.

AMAT, Applied Materials, Inc. looks like it is dropping as a result of a UBS downgrade today. The company engages in the development, manufacture, marketing, and service of integrated circuit fabrication equipment for the semiconductor industry worldwide. AMAT is currently trading at $17.75. If the stock trades below $17 I will likely purchase some shares of the company.

Where we are headed in April and the Summer of 2006

April has historically been a good month for traders and is the best Dow month of the year. I expect to see a bullish market fueled by strong 1st Quarter 2006 earnings reports. I believe that the 1st Quarter 2006 rally is a little extended. I have written in the past that I believe the theme of the market is uncertainty. The shift from a bull market to a bear market can happen in an instant. At the end of the month I am anticipating a drop in the markets. I expect investors to lock in profits and I intend to sell off the majority of my portfolio in April if the markets advance. I am planning to hold onto a few key stocks and build new positions in the next 1-3 months.

1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. update

FLWS, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc., has broken my second price target of $7.50 in after hours trading. Jim Cramer made a recommendation to buy FLWS on the April 7th, 2006, episode of Mad Money. The stock is now trading at $7.59 in after hours trading. The effect that Jim Cramer can have on a stock is amazing. The street.com has this article about the FLWS recommendation by Jim Cramer. I recommend holding onto FLWS until the company reports the new revenue from the Fannie May acquisition.

Yamana Gold, Inc. update

I mentioned AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc. on March 30th, 2006 as one of my top gold mining stock picks. In the last week AUY has jumped up tremendously, trading from $9.32 on March 30th, 2006 to an all time high of $ 11.42 on April 6th, 2006. AUY closed today at $11.12. There appears to be strong speculation and interest from gold investors in AUY. Gold futures have risen above $600, but the price of 24 hour spot gold has yet to pass the key price. I mentioned that I am looking for gold prices to pullback under $550 before getting back into gold mining stocks. I am raising my target price for gold to a range of $550-$565 and I am raising my target buy price for AUY from low $8’s to low $9’s. Gold is currently trading at $587.80.


[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

My short term 2006 buy list

I have a few stocks on my watchlist to buy in the next 1-3 months if they meet my target buy prices. I currently have a position in INTC, Intel Corporation. The majority of these stocks have not been added to my predictions list yet.

F, Ford Motor Company
AMAT, Applied Materials, Inc.
COY, Corporate High Yield Fund, Inc.
CHKP, Check Point Software Technologies, Ltd.
AUY, Yamana Gold, Inc.
YHOO, Yahoo! Inc.
INTC, Intel Corporation
ISRG, Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

Tempur-Pedic International, Inc. update

TPX, Tempur-Pedic International, Inc. has met my target price of $15. TPX is currently trading at $15.67. I believe the stock has a chance of meeting my second price target of $17 faster than I expected.

To view a complete list of all my predictions, click the predictions link at the top of the page.

Total number of picks since September 22nd, 2005: 20, Completed picks: 14, Winners: 12, Losers: 2

Total Winners: 85.7%

Selling Lucent Technologies Inc.


Raw Greed Portfolio Value, 04/05/2006 - $158,972.83
Stock Symbol Company Name QTY Purchase Date Avg. Cost Last Target Sell Price
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited 4598 Various $9.02 $10.48 $11
NT Nortel Networks Corp. 9000 Various $2.58 $2.93 $5.00
UMC United Microelectronics Corporation 15000 11/11/2005 $3.17 $3.62 $4.50
INTC Intel Corporation 1000 1/31/2006 $21.35 $19.48 $24.00
FLWS 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. 3000 Various $6.39 $6.995 $7.00

Notes:
Today I sold 8000 shares of LU, Lucent Technologies, Inc. at $3.1006. I purchased my shares of LU at an average cost of $2.96.

My profit was $1026.83 or 4.32%

I purchased 3000 shares of FLWS, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc., at an average purchase price of $6.39.

Raw Greed portfolio 4-5-06


Attempting to sell Lucent Technologies Inc.

Now that the details of the LU, Lucent Technologies, Inc. and ALA, Alcatel merger have been announced it’s very easy to calculate the current value of LU shares. Various news outlets have reported the value of the Lucent acquisition either at 13.4 billion or 13.5 billion. According to the terms of the acquisition LU shareholders will receive 0.1952 shares of an ALA, Alcatel American depositary receipt. ALA is currently trading at $16.27. This would value LU shares at $3.17. LU is currently trading at $3.09. I am placing an order today to sell my LU shares at $3.12.

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